If a layer of the atmosphere has a conditionally stable lapse rate, ascending saturated air may become unstable. Conditional stability means that the lapse rate in the layer is at least about 6oC per kilometer. This corresponds to a lapse rate of at least about 25oC in the 850 mb to 500 mb layer. The link for this section will take you to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Research Applications Program (RAP) numerical models page for the Eta model. Once you've reached this site, select the desired Forecast Time. Then examine the forecast of 850 mb Temps and the forecast of 500 mb Temps. Note the approximate values over ALO. Now determine the temperature change from 850 mb to 500 mb. If it is at least 25oC, consider the layer to be conditionally stable and conclude that "instability" does favor precipitation.