The actual surface wind usually differs from the geostrophic wind because it is influenced by friction and by the mixing of surface air with air from upper levels where the wind speed and direction are closer to their geostrophic values. The link for this section will take you to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Research Applications Program (RAP) numerical models page for the Eta model. Select the desired Forecast Time and then select the MSLP/Winds link. These products will contain the forecasts of the mean sea level isobar pattern, the 1000 mb to 500 mb thickness, and surface wind velocity (represented by small arrows). Use these arrows to help determine your forecast of wind direction. If you expect the wind speed to be less than 5 knots, forecast "light and variable" for both the direction and speed. Statistical guidance ("model output statistics", or MOS) based on the NGM is also available for both surface wind direction and speed.
Verification Values (direction, in degrees; reported to nearest 10 degrees):
N : 340, 350, 360, 010, 020 NE: 030, 040, 050, 060
E: 070, 080, 090, 100, 110 SE: 120, 130, 140, 150
S: 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 SW: 210, 220, 230, 240
W: 250, 260, 270, 280, 290 NW: 300, 310, 320, 330