All of the items you have considered to this point should help you with your temperature forecasts. You should also consider factors such as the average high and low for this date, the record high and low for this date, the typical diurnal variation of temperature for this date, and whether persistence would be a good starting point for your forecast. This set of information can be determined by examining the ALO climate summary given by the "ALO Climo." link. Statistical guidance is also available from the NGM, AVN, and MRF models via the links listed for this section. National Weather Service forecasts and observations can be accessed via the "Iowa" link. Examine recent surface data plots available from the "RAP Surface Data" link and time series of surface data available from the "Univ. of Wyoming" link.