Scoring
Error points are assigned according to the following:
1) Temperature
absolute difference between Forecast and Observed
2) Wind Direction
| light and variable | N | NE | E | SE | S | SW | W | NW | ||
| light and variable | 0 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
N |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
NE |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
E |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
|
| Forecast | SE |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
S |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
SW |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
W |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
NW |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
Wind Speed (knots)
| 0-2 (light and variable) | 3-7 | 8-12 | 13-17 | 18-22 | 23 and above | ||
| 0-2 (lt. and var.) | 0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
3-7 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
| Forecast | 8-12 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
13-17 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
18-22 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
23 and above |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3) Sky Conditions
| SKC/CLR | FEW | SCT | BKN | OVC | ||
| SKC/CLR | 0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
| FEW | 1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
| Forecast | SCT | 2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| BKN | 3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
| OVC | 4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
4) Significant Weather
+5 for each correctly forecast, -3 for each forecast but not observed, -3 for each observed but not forecast
5) Probability of Precipitation (POP)
No Precip. Observed: score = forecast POP
Precip. Observed: score = 100 - forecast POP
6) Min / Max Temperature
absolute difference between forecast and observed for each